وول ستريت جورنال: تغير الموقف الأوربي تجاه مصر مرسي

After botching its response to the early stages of the Tahrir Square uprising against ex-President Hosni Mubarak, the EU has been a key partner as Egypt has made a turbulent transition from the authoritarian certainties of Mubarak’s regime to the fluid, divisive era of presidential elections and power-sharing between the military and a new political class.
Yet with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Muhammed Morsi now elected president, diplomats say Europe’s focus must shift. While maintaining pressure for a peaceful transition to civilian rule, the key challenge is to help Cairo meet the daunting economic tasks ahead.
Ms. Ashton, the EU’s High Representative for foreign policy, is meeting Mr. Morsi Thursday afternoon. She was also due to meet with Head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi but the meeting was cancelled at the last minute for “agenda reasons,” a spokesman said. Her visit follows U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit last weekend.
“Egypt is a key player in the Arab world… so steps forward in Egypt are crucial for democracy-building in the Middle East and North Africa,” Ms. Ashton said ahead of the visit. “The EU is aware there are many challenges ahead. But (we) will continue to stand by Egypt and its people in their quest for both deep democracy and economic opportunity.”
Throughout the many twists and turns of Egypt’s transition thus far, Europe has played a steady hand.
Brussels and EU member states have gently insisted the military move down a road-mapped transition toward civilian power. They pushed outreach to the Muslim Brotherhood while preaching patience and inclusiveness. The ties paid off as it became clear the organization would triumph at the ballot box. And Europe has consistently prodded Egypt’s emerging power elite to stand by its international commitments – read, work with Israel to uphold the contours of the 1979 peace deal.
At times, Europe’s involvement has been hands-on. The EU’s special representative for North Africa, Bernadino Leon, has been back and forth to the country and was one of the few visible top Western diplomats on the ground in Cairo in the tense days after the second round of presidential elections. Mr. Leon, a seasoned Spanish diplomat with deep ties in the region, spent the trip scurrying between the military, Muslim Brotherhood officials and other key actors as election results were delayed and tensions skyrocketed.
Mr. Leon, who is accompanying Ms. Ashton on this week’s trip, says the EU’s key task has been to help bridge the deep mistrust between the two main sides–the military and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Up to now, “they have been playing a kind of containment game with each other,” he told us during a sit-down last week. Confidence remains minimal. The result, he said was “total polarization” during the elections.
While the EU does not have direct leverage the U.S. enjoys with its $1.5 billion in bilateral aid, Europe has avoided the kind of diplomatic standoffs Washington has faced, including the shutting down of U.S. backed pro-democracy NGOs and the arrest of their staff. One U.S. citizen is still facing trial.
“I think most actors… -both the political actors and the army – realize that the EU is a very important partner. And they are asking for more cooperation from Europe,” Mr. Leon said. “We are talking to them in trust and they listen.”
Yet while Brussels’ focus has been political, the economic challenges are now becoming paramount.
“Once Cathy Ashton has travelled there… once we do our best to explain the importance of an inclusive government, then this new government will have to immediately face the economic challenges,” Mr. Leon said.
Talks on a $3.2 billion International Monetary Fund loan package have been on hold for months and the Washington-based lender has said it is waiting the appointment of a new government to continue negotiations. Mr. Leon said that may not be until early September.
Unemployment, a key driver of the Tahrir protests of early 2011, remains rife. Some surveys suggest nearly one in two young adults is jobless and even among university graduates, nearly one in three aren’t in formal work.
To coordinate a response, Brussels is constructing the same kind of broad taskforce it successfully deployed in Tunisia. The idea is to group together authorities, civil society groups, EU experts and NGOs to reinforce institution building but above all to develop targeted social programs.  
“We have a transition, we have a reconciliation process but we have also a social revolution,” in Egypt, Mr. Leon said. “This social revolution is from a country in which an important part of the population is living in extreme poverty… It will take many years but we have to start now.”
It will also take cash. Senior EU officials say Brussels is working on a significant support package. Part of the money, said one top diplomat, should come as grants not loans.
“Egypt plays a very important role in the Arab world,” said the diplomat, who described the recent presidential elections as the most important vote ever in the region.  A successful transition there will “have an effect on many countries” in the region.